Julia Tanndal
Family-level stress and children's educational choice:
Evidence from parent layoffs
Miika Päällysaho and Julia Tanndal
We analyze the effect of parental layoffs on the educational outcomes of their children. Using Swedish administrative data, we exploit shocks to firm labor demand to estimate the age-specific impact of parental layoffs on high school graduation rates. We find that parental layoffs have a significant impact on high school completion rates and that the effect is strongest in the year of application to high school (age 15). We then exploit variation in the fine timing of the layoff to link this effect to a short window before a student chooses where to apply to high school. A parental layoff in the month before the school choice deadline decreases the likelihood that the child will finish high school on time by 9 percentage points relative to a layoff in the same school semester, but after the deadline. The effect is higher for families with less information about high school choice, consistent with the hypothesis that family stress, even if temporary and without financial effects, may disrupt educational choice.

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Drivers of the Ethnic Mobility Gap in Sweden
This paper describes how intergenerational mobility differ between ethnic groups in Sweden. Conditional on parent income, non-European second-generation immigrants do substantially worse than native men or second-generation immigrants from Europe, with expected earnings 8-13 rank percentiles lower than their native peers. This gap in mobility is significant for all levels of parent income, but does not affect women. The paper tracks the mobility gap in different outcomes over the life cycle and find that only 25 percent of the gap can be observed before labor market entry, and that nothing is attributable to a gap in observable skills. Employment and labor market sorting are the big drivers of the earnings gap in the lower end of the distribution. This particular age profile of the gap highlights that equality of childhood opportunity may not be sufficient to equalize outcomes on a labor market where ethnic discrimination is present.
Tax Evasion through Offshore Accounts
This paper tests the effect of tax rate changes on tax evasion through offshore accounts. Using a dataset where the country of residence for beneficial owners of offshore accounts are observed, I estimate the effect of changing tax rates on the offshore activity of owners from that specific country. Neither lowering tax rates on dividends and top incomes, nor the abolition of tax on wealth altogether have any effect on decreasing the rate at which new offshore accounts are opened. In light of recent mixed results on the efficiency of international regulation in curbing offshore activity, this paper provides a benchmark for the efficiency of using tax policy as an alternative to regulation.

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Does Financial Deregulation Boost Top Incomes? Evidence from the Big Bang
Julia Tanndal and Daniel Waldenström
We estimate the impact of financial market deregulation on top income shares. Using the novel synthetic control method to investigate the two ‘Big Bangs’ of financial deregulation, the UK in 1986 and Japan in 1997–9, we find that pre‐tax top income shares increased after both deregulation episodes. This finding is robust to placebo tests, alternative ways of constructing synthetic controls, and the examination of post‐treatment trends and UK wage microdata trends. Higher earnings among financial sector employees appears to be the key mechanism behind this result.

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Work in Progress
Ethnic discrimination in layoffs. (Sirus Dehdari and Julia Tanndal)